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"In a world of deep uncertainty, the ability to adapt is more important than the ability to predict." – Roger Spitz
In this CPD episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye continues his conversation with Roger Spitz, global foresight expert and founder of Techistential and the Disruptive Futures Institute.
Building on Part 1 (Foresight and Risk: Embracing Unpredictability with Roger Spitz), Roger delves deeper into the practical application of foresight in risk management, covering how organisations can integrate scenario planning, anticipate systemic risks, and build resilience against unpredictable disruptions.
In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn:
The Limits of Traditional Scenario Planning: Why conventional risk models fail in deep uncertainty and how organisations can develop a more adaptive approach.
Foresight-Driven Decision-Making: How risk leaders can integrate foresight methodologies to navigate complexity and enhance strategic planning.
Asymmetry and Uninsurable Risks: The impact of asymmetric risks, why some disruptions cannot be insured, and how leaders can build resilience in unpredictable environments.
Beyond Resilience – Embracing Anti-Fragility: The critical distinction between fragility, resilience, and anti-fragility—and how organisations can thrive under systemic disruption.
Leadership and Governance in an Uncertain World: Practical strategies for embedding foresight into risk culture, governance frameworks, and executive decision-making.
More about Roger Spitz
Roger is a leading authority on strategic foresight, systemic disruption, and complexity. As President of Techistential, he advises executives and boards on navigating uncertainty. He is also the author of Disrupt with Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World.
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Recap Blog: The Future of Risk – Why Foresight, Not Prediction, Is the Key to Resilience
"In a world of deep uncertainty, the ability to adapt is more important than the ability to predict." – Roger Spitz
In Part 2 of this CPD-accredited RiskMasters episode, host Julien Haye continues his conversation with Roger Spitz to explore how organisations can turn uncertainty into a strategic advantage.
While Part 1 focused on understanding deep uncertainty, this episode explores practical ways to implement foresight-driven decision-making, scenario planning, and resilience-building strategies.
Why Traditional Scenario Planning Falls Short
Many organisations mistakenly believe they are preparing for uncertainty when they run scenario models. However, most scenario planning is based on predictable variations, not radical shifts. Roger explains that true foresight is not about adjusting assumptions—it’s about exploring multiple plausible futures, including low-probability, high-impact events.
Key Takeaway: Instead of using linear forecasts, risk leaders must develop adaptive strategies that prepare for the unexpected.
The Power of Asymmetry in Risk Management
One of the most critical aspects of modern risk management is understanding asymmetry — when a small event triggers disproportionate consequences.
Roger highlights climate risk, cyber threats, and geopolitical instability as examples where traditional risk models fail to quantify systemic risks. In these cases, organisations must move beyond probability-based models and build resilience-first strategies.
Key Takeaway: Some risks are uninsurable under traditional models—organisations need alternative approaches to managing systemic disruption.
Fragility, Resilience, and Anti-Fragility
Roger introduces Nassim Taleb’s concept of anti-fragility, explaining that:
Fragile systems break under stress.
Resilient systems survive but do not improve.
Anti-fragile systems grow stronger from stressors.
In risk management, organisations should design anti-fragile systems that learn and evolve from uncertainty, rather than merely absorbing shocks.
Key Takeaway: Resilience is not enough—organisations must embrace change and create structures that thrive under pressure.
How to Apply Foresight-Driven Decision-Making
Roger shares practical steps for integrating foresight into leadership and governance, including:
Using horizon scanning to identify weak signals of change.
Creating cross-disciplinary risk teams that incorporate multiple viewpoints.
Developing flexible strategies instead of rigid risk frameworks.
By embedding foresight methodologies into their organisations, risk leaders can stay ahead of systemic disruptions instead of merely reacting to them.
Key Takeaway: Foresight should be a core competency in risk management, leadership, and strategy.
Key Lessons for Risk Professionals
This shift in approach influences the broader discipline of risk management, requiring new methods of strategic resilience to navigate deep uncertainty effectively.
Move from Risk Assessment to Risk Adaptation: Traditional risk models assume a stable environment, but uncertainty is constant. Organisations must focus on building systems that adapt, rather than relying on static risk assessments.
Evolve Scenario Planning to Account for Systemic Disruptions: Many organisations still treat scenario planning as an exercise in adjusting assumptions within a predictable range. Leaders must embrace foresight-driven scenario exploration to prepare for nonlinear risks.
Redefine Resilience – Build for Anti-Fragility: Simply withstanding shocks is no longer enough. Organisations must introduce slack, redundancy, and decentralised decision-making to strengthen their ability to grow stronger under stress rather than just surviving it.
Prioritise Adaptability Over Over-Optimisation: Excessive efficiency can make organisations fragile. Leaders must balance efficiency with flexibility and contingency planning, ensuring they can pivot when disruption occurs.
Actionable Next Steps:
Incorporate Complexity Science into Risk Strategies: Risk teams should collaborate with foresight experts to apply complexity theory and systemic thinking to strategic planning.
Challenge Conventional Risk Frameworks: Executives should reassess outdated risk models that rely on linear thinking and develop dynamic, adaptive risk governance frameworks.
Shift Decision-Making Toward Uncertainty Readiness: Organisations must build decision frameworks that assume uncertainty, incorporating early warning signals, scenario stress testing, and continuous iteration rather than relying on fixed models.
FAQs
Why do traditional scenario planning methods fail in deep uncertainty?
Traditional scenario planning often assumes a stable environment where risks are independent and quantifiable. However, deep uncertainty arises when risks are interconnected and nonlinear, making conventional models ineffective. Organisations must shift to foresight-driven scenario exploration, considering multiple plausible futures, including low-probability, high-impact events.
What is asymmetry in risk management, and why does it matter?
Asymmetry in risk management occurs when small events trigger disproportionately large consequences. Traditional risk models often fail to quantify these systemic risks, such as cyber threats, climate change, and geopolitical instability. Organisations must move beyond probability-based assessments and adopt resilience-first strategies to mitigate cascading effects.
How does anti-fragility differ from resilience in risk management?
Resilience allows organisations to withstand shocks without improving, whereas anti-fragile systems grow stronger when exposed to stressors. Risk management must evolve beyond resilience by introducing slack, redundancy, and decentralised decision-making to create adaptive and thriving organisations in uncertain environments.
What are the key principles of foresight-driven decision-making?
Foresight-driven decision-making involves horizon scanning for weak signals, creating cross-disciplinary risk teams, and developing flexible strategies rather than rigid risk frameworks. By embedding foresight methodologies, organisations can proactively navigate systemic disruptions instead of merely reacting to them.
How can organisations transition from risk assessment to risk adaptation?
Organisations must recognise that uncertainty is constant and move away from static risk assessments. Instead, they should build adaptive systems that integrate complexity science, systemic risk analysis, and scenario-based strategic planning to better respond to dynamic threats.
Why is over-optimisation a risk in uncertain environments?
Excessive efficiency can make organisations fragile by removing necessary redundancies and flexibility. In uncertain environments, prioritising adaptability over optimisation ensures that organisations can pivot and remain operational when disruptions occur.
What practical steps can executives take to integrate foresight into risk management?
Executives should challenge outdated risk models, incorporate complexity science, and embed early warning systems into decision-making. Adopting foresight methodologies, such as stress testing for multiple futures and real-time scenario planning, helps organisations shift from a reactive stance to a proactive, uncertainty-ready approach.
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