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"Risk management is not about predicting the future, but about preparing for it." – Roger Spitz
In this CPD episode of RiskMasters to be released on February 15th, host Julien Haye welcomes Roger Spitz, a global leader in foresight and strategic risk intelligence. Roger, the founder of Techistential and The Disruptive Futures Institute, discusses his career pivot from investment banking to futures studies and how foresight can transform risk management.
With extensive experience in mergers and acquisitions, Roger now focuses on preparing organisations for deep uncertainty rather than attempting to predict the future. His insights on complexity, decision-making, and resilience are critical for risk managers navigating an unpredictable world.
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In this edition of RiskMasters, you will learn:
Career Evolution & Risk Leadership: Roger’s journey from investment banking to foresight and his lessons in risk-taking and adaptability.
The Role of Foresight in Risk Management: Why foresight is about preparation, not prediction, and how organisations can shift their mindset.
Uncertainty vs. Risk: Understanding the spectrum between risk, uncertainty, and deep uncertainty, and why traditional risk models fail in a nonlinear world.
Scenario Planning vs. Sensitivity Analysis: Why many organisations mistakenly treat sensitivity analysis as strategic foresight.
Decision-Making in Complex Environments: How executives should rethink governance, leadership, and resilience in a world where rare events are becoming the norm.
More about Roger Spitz:
Roger Spitz is a visionary futurist and venture capitalist. Before founding the influential Disruptive Futures Institute in San Francisco, he served as Global Head of Technology M&A at a major investment bank, advising on transactions totalling over $25 billion.
As President of Techistential, the preeminent foresight practice, Roger advises CEOs and boards on strategy under uncertainty and sustainable value creation. Roger is a bestselling author of five books and his frameworks are widely adopted by leading organisations worldwide.
Building on his bestselling books and global recognition as the leading authority on systemic disruption, Roger Spitz is famous for his unique keynotes drawn from his extensive real-world experience. He is the author of Disrupt with Impact: Achieve Business Success in an Unpredictable World.
At the heart of Roger's transformative keynotes is the power of agency and informed optimism in shaping our futures, even in the face of unpredictability
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Recap Blog: The Future of Risk – Why Foresight, Not Prediction, Is the Key to Resilience
"Foresight is not about prediction; it’s about preparation, futures intelligence, and resilience." – Roger Spitz
In this episode of RiskMasters, host Julien Haye speaks with Roger Spitz, a global expert in foresight, strategic risk, and resilience. Roger’s career journey from investment banking to futures studies offers key lessons for risk leaders navigating an increasingly uncertain world.
With the pace of change accelerating, traditional risk models are becoming less effective, and organisations must adopt a new mindset—one that prioritises adaptability over control. Roger explains why risk professionals should focus on building resilience, understanding complexity, and developing futures intelligence rather than relying on outdated predictive models.
Career Evolution: From Investment Banking to Strategic Foresight
Roger’s career began in investment banking, where he spent two decades advising CEOs and boards on mergers and acquisitions. While this experience honed his strategic risk analysis skills, he realised that traditional risk models were inadequate for addressing uncertainty.
Roger transitioned into foresight after realizing uncertainty is not just a risk—it’s an opportunity. Now, through his firm Techistential and the Disruptive Futures Institute, Roger advises organisations on how to prepare for deep uncertainty and systemic disruption.
Key Lesson: Traditional career paths in finance and risk management are evolving. Future leaders must develop interdisciplinary expertise—combining strategy, behavioural science, and complex systems thinking.
Foresight vs. Prediction: Why Risk Management Needs a New Approach
A major theme in this conversation is the difference between traditional risk management and strategic foresight.
Risk Management (Traditional Approach):
Relies on probabilistic models to assess threats.
Assumes a predictable world where past data informs future risks.
Seeks to control outcomes through layered risk mitigation.
Foresight (Future-Ready Approach):
Recognises that the world is nonlinear, uncertain, and complex.
Focuses on scanning for emerging signals rather than predicting outcomes.
Helps organisations prepare for multiple possible futures instead of betting on one scenario.
Takeaway: Risk leaders must prioritise preparation over prediction, developing strategies that embrace uncertainty rather than resist it.
Uncertainty vs. Complexity: The Pitfalls of Traditional Risk Models
Roger introduces an important distinction between risk, uncertainty, and deep uncertainty:
Risk – Known unknowns. Risks can be quantified and modelled using probability-based frameworks.
Uncertainty – Unknown outcomes, but with some defined possibilities. Organisations can create scenario-based strategies to prepare for different futures.
Deep Uncertainty – The most challenging category. Here, organisations don’t even know what the possible risks are. The world is evolving in ways that cannot be forecasted using historical data.
Traditional risk models often fail in environments of deep uncertainty because they:
Over-rely on historical trends to predict future risks.
Ignore interconnected risks and second-order effects.
Assume that risk factors are independent, rather than part of a larger system.
Example: The 2017 Maersk cyberattack highlights the challenges of deep uncertainty. The NotPetya malware disrupted Maersk's global shipping operations, cascading across interconnected systems. This wasn't just a single cyber incident but the result of a combination of vulnerabilities—an increasingly digitized supply chain, geopolitical tensions, and insufficient preparedness for systemic disruptions. Maersk had to rebuild its entire IT infrastructure, demonstrating how traditional risk models fail to anticipate the compounded effects of interconnected risks in a complex environment.
Key Takeaway: Risk leaders must stop viewing risks in isolation and start analysing them as dynamic, interdependent forces.
Scenario Planning vs. Sensitivity Analysis: The Common Misconception
One of the biggest mistakes organisations make is confusing scenario planning with sensitivity analysis.
Sensitivity Analysis:
Adjusts a few variables within a predefined model.
Still assumes a stable, predictable world.
Fails to account for systemic disruptions or black swan events.
True Scenario Planning:
Identifies multiple plausible futures based on emerging trends.
Explores how complex interactions might lead to unexpected consequences.
Helps organisations develop agility and resilience.
Example: The insurance industry is struggling with climate change-related risks. Traditional risk models are failing to account for deep uncertainty—leading insurers to withdraw from high-risk markets (e.g., California wildfires, flood-prone regions).
Takeaway: Scenario planning must go beyond probability models—it should embrace uncertainty, explore cascading risks, and develop adaptable strategies.
Key Lessons for Risk Professionals
This shift in approach influences the broader discipline of risk management, requiring new methods of strategic resilience.
Move from Prediction to Preparation: Accept that the future is nonlinear—stop chasing certainty and start building resilience.
Update Scenario Planning Methods: Organisations still operate in linear frameworks—they need to rethink deep uncertainty.
Build Resilient Organisations: Focus on anti-fragility—introduce slack, redundancy, and agility into decision-making.
Shift from Efficiency to Effectiveness: Over-optimisation creates fragility—prioritise adaptability over rigid control.
Actionable Next Steps:
Risk teams should collaborate with foresight experts to incorporate complexity science into strategic planning.
Executives should challenge outdated risk frameworks and adopt a systemic approach to decision-making.
Organisations must create decision models that allow for uncertainty, rather than resisting it.
Final Thoughts: The Future of Risk Management
Roger Spitz’s insights challenge conventional risk management practices, emphasising the need for new tools, new frameworks, and a new mindset.
The future of risk management is not about controlling the unknown—it’s about becoming adaptable enough to thrive in uncertainty.
FAQ: Foresight and Risk – Embracing Uncertainty with Roger Spitz
What is the difference between risk, uncertainty, and deep uncertainty?
Risk refers to situations where possible outcomes are known, and probabilities can be assigned, making it easier to plan for. Uncertainty arises when multiple possible futures exist, but the exact likelihood of each is unclear. Deep uncertainty goes further, describing situations where the full range of potential outcomes is unknown, and events evolve in unpredictable ways. Traditional risk models struggle with deep uncertainty, requiring organisations to adopt foresight and resilience strategies instead of relying on historical data.
Why is foresight more effective than prediction in risk management?
Prediction assumes a stable and linear world where past trends continue, but uncertainty and complexity often make predictions unreliable. Foresight, on the other hand, helps organisations explore multiple possible futures and prepare for a range of scenarios. Instead of attempting to predict specific outcomes, foresight focuses on adaptability, ensuring that organisations can respond effectively to unexpected disruptions.
How does scenario planning differ from sensitivity analysis?
Scenario planning involves exploring different plausible futures based on emerging trends, allowing organisations to develop strategies that remain flexible under uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis, by contrast, adjusts a few key variables within an existing model while still assuming a largely predictable environment. Many organisations mistakenly treat sensitivity analysis as a form of foresight, but true scenario planning requires a more open-ended approach that acknowledges systemic disruption and complexity.
Why do traditional risk models fail in complex environments?
Traditional risk models are built on the assumption that risks are independent and quantifiable, relying on past data to estimate future probabilities. However, in complex and interconnected environments, risks often interact in unpredictable ways, leading to cascading effects that models fail to capture. The 2017 Maersk cyberattack is a prime example of deep uncertainty. The NotPetya malware spread rapidly through Maersk's global systems, exploiting vulnerabilities in a highly interconnected supply chain. This unforeseen event forced the company to rebuild its entire IT infrastructure and highlighted how traditional models fail to account for cascading risks and systemic disruptions. Organisations need to move beyond static models and develop a dynamic approach to risk management.
How can organisations build resilience in an unpredictable world?
Organisations can build resilience by shifting from efficiency-focused strategies to adaptability-focused ones. This means creating redundancies, decentralising decision-making, and ensuring systems can absorb shocks rather than collapse under pressure. Instead of designing rigid control structures that assume stability, leaders should cultivate agility by embracing uncertainty, testing different scenarios, and continuously learning from emerging trends.
What is the role of risk managers in a world of deep uncertainty?
Risk managers must evolve from enforcing compliance and managing predefined risks to helping organisations navigate uncertainty. This involves integrating foresight into risk frameworks, challenging assumptions about predictability, and fostering a culture where adaptability is prioritised. Rather than focusing solely on minimising downside risks, modern risk management should also consider how uncertainty can create opportunities for growth and transformation.
What first step should organisations take to incorporate foresight into risk management?
Organisations should start by broadening their perspective on risk and uncertainty. Instead of relying only on predictive models, they should incorporate trend analysis, horizon scanning, and scenario planning to explore multiple possible futures. Encouraging diverse viewpoints, monitoring weak signals of change, and fostering an adaptive mindset within leadership teams can help organisations move from a reactive stance to a proactive, future-ready approach.
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