What does “leading through uncertainty” mean?

Leading through uncertainty refers to the ability of leaders to make ethical, strategic decisions in complex and unpredictable environments. It involves adapting quickly, staying grounded in core values, and creating a culture where challenge, dissent, and dialogue are encouraged.

Why is linear thinking risky in today’s environment?

Linear thinking assumes predictability and clear cause-effect relationships. In a nonlinear world—where risks are interconnected, fast-moving, and often systemic—linear thinking can lead to blind spots, delayed action, and brittle strategies.

What is complexity competence?

Complexity competence is the ability to lead effectively in dynamic, uncertain environments. It involves pattern recognition, comfort with ambiguity, ethical anchoring, collaborative foresight, and adaptive governance.

What frameworks help with decision-making under uncertainty?

Key frameworks include the OODA Loop for iterative action, pre-mortems and red teaming for challenging assumptions, and complexity mapping to visualise interdependencies and feedback loops. Each tool supports more resilient and adaptive decision-making.

How does risk management need to evolve in a complex world?

Risk management must shift from being compliance-focused to culture-driven. It should empower transparency, surface silent risks, and become a strategic enabler—guiding ethical decision-making and supporting leadership through uncertainty.